Modeling Community COVID-19 Transmission Risk Associated with U.S. Universities release_y2jx2tbejbh47oic65oiaytjpi

by J. A. Uelmen, Heather Kopsco, Jameson Mori, William Brown, Rebecca Smith

Released as a post by Research Square Platform LLC.

2022  

Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is among the worst in recent history, resulting in excess of 520,000,000 cases and 6,200,000 deaths worldwide. The United States has recently surpassed 1,000,000 deaths. Individuals who are elderly and/or immunocompromised are the most susceptible to serious sequelae. Rising sentiment often implicates younger, less-vulnerable populations as primary introducers of COVID-19 to communities, particularly around colleges and universities. This research seeks to evaluate the potential role of college students, measured as total university enrollment, in overall community-level age-adjusted COVID-19 case and mortality rate within each American county. From January 1, 2020 through March 31, 2021, a total of 22,385,335 cases and 374,130 deaths were reported to the CDC. Adjusting for more than 32 key socio-demographic, economic, and epidemiologic variables, we implemented regression and factor analytic methods to determine the overall infection and mortality susceptibility for each county and key factors associated with case and mortality rates. Overall, counties with increasing numbers of university enrollment showed significantly lower case rates and marginal decreases in mortality rates. Contrary to common sentiment, our findings demonstrate that counties with high university enrollments may be more adherent to public safety measures and vaccinations, likely contributing to safer communities.
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