The Modeling Impact of Different Food Policy Scenarios on Incidence and Mortality from type 2 Diabetes in Azar Cohort Population release_7gsdy3qxnnhjnlw2sdu4oojazq

Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:bold>Background:</jats:bold> Given the impact of high intake sugar sweetened beverages on type2 diabetes, intervention to reduce their consumption can be a top priority for any health system. Thus, the purpose of the present study is to simulate the impact of policy options related to reduce consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages on the prevalence and mortality of type 2 diabetes in Iranian men and women.<jats:bold>Methods:</jats:bold> A Markov micro-simulation (MM) model was used to predict the effect of several policy options on the incidence and death from type 2 diabetes in Azar Cohort Databases. Population age-and sex-specific prevalence and incidence rate of diagnosed diabetes were derived from the national health data. The PRIME model was used for coding the input parameters of simulation using R and Python software.<jats:bold>Results:</jats:bold> The prevalence and mortality rate of type 2 diabetes under the scenario of reduced consumption of sugar sweetened beverages indicated that the highest and lowest prevalence and mortality rates of type 2 diabetes for men and women were related to no policy condition and replacing sugar-sweetened beverages with healthy drinks such as water, respectively. Also, the maximum number of death postponed/prevented from type 2 diabetes was related to replacing sugar-sweetened beverages with water and levying 10% tax on sugar sweetened beverages, respectively. <jats:bold>Conclusion:</jats:bold> Regarding the effect of simulating different policy options on reducing the consumption of sugar sweetened beverages, the most effective policy options were replacing sugar-sweetened beverages with water.
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