A retrospective study of the pre-eruptive unrest on El Hierro (Canary Islands): implications of seismicity and deformation in the short-term volcanic hazard assessment release_34wwc53asfewvoul6f4qi3u3ee

Abstract

The correct identification and interpretation of unrest indicators are useful for forecasting volcanic eruptions, delivering early warnings, and understanding the changes occurring in a volcanic system prior to an eruption. Such indicators play an important role in upgrading previous long-term volcanic hazard assessments and help grasp the complexities of the preceding period of eruptive activity. In this work, we present a retrospective analysis of the 2011 unrest episode on the island of El Hierro that preceded a submarine eruption. We use seismic and surface deformation monitoring data to compute the susceptibility analysis (QVAST tool) and to study the evolution over time of the unrest (ST-HASSET tool). Additionally, we show the advantages to be gained by using continuous monitoring data and hazard assessment e-tools to upgrade spatio-temporal analyses and thus visualize more simply the development of the volcanic activity.
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